Loading Data

As long feared, the country is currently engulfed in regional flare-ups. These are currently concentrated in the MidWest, the Mountain states and parts of the South. However every region and state is experiencing spikes in cases and deaths. The most severely affected are North and South Dakota, which are experiencing death rates matching or exceeding what hit the NorthEast earlier this year.

As has been true for months, the top four states by per capita death are New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts and Connecticut. However, these rankings may begin to shift later this winter. Again, should North and South Dakota continue on their current trajectory they're both on course to set new records here in the U.S.

With the holidays approaching and much of the population disregarding health warnings (or simply believing they're just a liberal hoax), we can expect record hospitalizations over the next few months. The effect of this may be partially balanced by new rerecently-approved treatments. However, it's unlikely that these new treatments will be widespread enough or effective enough to avoid a large eventual death toll.

Cases have been trending up over the past two months, moving around regionally. Currently the Upper Midwest and parts of the South are suffering the most, while the West and NorthEast have had a relative respite.

Death rates have remained relatively stable and much lower than at the peak of the pandemic. However, increases in deaths normally trail increases in new cases. Therefore it's expected that the death rate will move up again in the coming days.

The Northeast remains the most impacted by the pandemic. The top four states, by per capita death, are New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts and Connecticut. But other states are moving into the top 10. In particular, Lousianan, Mississippi and Florida have recently joined the list.

Even mong the hardest-hit states there's a wide disparity in impact. For example, although Florida is ranked 10th in the U.S. in per capita deaths, it's death rate is still just 40% of (1st place) New Jersey. It will be interesting to see if this changes over the coming winter.

New cases have declined over the past few weeks, while the death rate has remained stable. Throughout August the U.S. has averaged about 1,000 deaths per day, while cases have fallen below 50,000 per day.

As expected the virus has remained regional, popping up in some areas and declining in others. In general, areas that were first hit have done better over time. This is particularly true for the Northeast, which is currently holding new cases and deaths to relatively low rates. In contrast, much of the American south is now deep in the throes of the epidemic. Lousiana and Mississippi are doing particularly poorly and have moved into the top 10 most-affected states. Texas and Florida are not far behind.

There are two outliers in the West. The worst is Arizona, which has struggled over an extended period and now ranks 9th nationally in per capita deaths. The other outlier is California, which never fully flattened its curve, particularly in the southern parts of the state. That said, California is currently doing fairly well overall, with a per capita death rate half the U.S. average.

Nationally, 99.3% of all counties have reported local COVID cases. 79.9% of all counties have reported at least one COVID death.

As feared, death rates have reached a national plateau and are trending higher. From a July 4th low of 526 deaths per day, the 7-day moving average of U.S. deaths has increased 45%.

The Northeast has declined to very low rates, whereas California remains stubbornly high and some southern states have spiked. The worst spikes are currently in Arizona, Texas and Florida, but all southern states are suffering elevated deaths. Nationally, 65% of all U.S. counties have seen at least one COVID-19 death.

In addition, cases have soared nationally. On July 17th the U.S. cases increased by over 77,000 - a record. Once again, these increases are predominately in the southern states with Florida being one of the hardest hit. These numbers point to increased deaths in the week to come. It's possible that some regions might seen disastrous casualties due to overwhelmed hospital systems.

As expected, the CFR (Case Fatality Rate) continues to decline. It now stands at 3.78%, far from its high of 5.85% two months ago. This is of course a function of increased testing. Epidemiologists believe the true CFR is probably in the range of 0.5% - 1.2%. Note that if we assume a herd-immunity level of 60%, even a CFR of "merely" 0.5% would result in approximately 950,000 American deaths.

Death rates continue falling across the nation. Daily fatalities are now at the lowest level in months - from the April 24th high, the moving 7-day average has fallen over 80%.

The decline in death rates continues to be largely driven from the Northeast. Elsewhere the situation is patchier, with some states falling (Washington), some on persistent plateaus (California), and others rising (Arkansas).

The coronavirus has now been confirmed in 96% of US counties. Deaths have been reported in 60% of all counties.

In contrast, cases continue to rise throughout most of the country. No doubt much of this is due to increased testing. However, it is believed that infection rates are rising as well. If so, this should reveal itself in an increase death rate over the coming weeks.

Interestingly, the CFR (Case Fatality Rate) has stabilized at around 5.38% for both the US and the World. It's expected that this rate will continue to decline from here as testing becomes more prevalent. As of this writing, epidemelogists believe the true CFR may be approximate 0.5%. If so, that would imply that approximately 25 million Americans have been infected by the virus.

The Death Rate Change List ranks states by rate of change in deaths over 2-week periods. These numbers tend to jump around a bit, however it is worth noting that southern and Sun Belt states have been among the worst-performing. Arizona, North Carolina, Tennessee are good examples here. If this trend continues, we may witness a sharp increase in deaths in these states over the coming months.