|6)||93.57||District of Columbia|
The Northeast has declined to very low rates, whereas California remains stubbornly high and some southern states have spiked. The worst spikes are currently in Arizona, Texas and Florida, but all southern states are suffering elevated deaths. Nationally, 65% of all U.S. counties have seen at least one COVID-19 death.
In addition, cases have soared nationally. On July 17th the U.S. cases increased by over 77,000 - a record. Once again, these increases are predominately in the southern states with Florida being one of the hardest hit. These numbers point to increased deaths in the week to come. It's possible that some regions might seen disastrous casualties due to overwhelmed hospital systems.
As expected, the CFR (Case Fatality Rate) continues to decline. It now stands at 3.78%, far from its high of 5.85% two months ago. This is of course a function of increased testing. Epidemiologists believe the true CFR is probably in the range of 0.5% - 1.2%. Note that if we assume a herd-immunity level of 60%, even a CFR of "merely" 0.5% would result in approximately 950,000 American deaths.
The decline in death rates continues to be largely driven from the Northeast. Elsewhere the situation is patchier, with some states falling (Washington), some on persistent plateaus (California), and others rising (Arkansas).
The coronavirus has now been confirmed in 96% of US counties. Deaths have been reported in 60% of all counties.
In contrast, cases continue to rise throughout most of the country. No doubt much of this is due to increased testing. However, it is believed that infection rates are rising as well. If so, this should reveal itself in an increase death rate over the coming weeks.
Interestingly, the CFR (Case Fatality Rate) has stabilized at around 5.38% for both the US and the World. It's expected that this rate will continue to decline from here as testing becomes more prevalent. As of this writing, epidemelogists believe the true CFR may be approximate 0.5%. If so, that would imply that approximately 25 million Americans have been infected by the virus.
The Death Rate Change List ranks states by rate of change in deaths over 2-week periods. These numbers tend to jump around a bit, however it is worth noting that southern and Sun Belt states have been among the worst-performing. Arizona, North Carolina, Tennessee are good examples here. If this trend continues, we may witness a sharp increase in deaths in these states over the coming months.
The coronavirus has now been confirmed in 93% of US counties. Deaths have been reported in 54% of all counties, and 4% have had over 100 deaths.
In terms of per capita deaths, New Jersey has become the worst-affected state. Western and mountain states remain the least affected regions. Mississippi (20.66 deaths per 100k) and Georgia (17.07) are rising in the rankings but still are nowhere near as impacted as the Northeast. For example, New Jersey (124.70) currently has 6X the per capita death rate.
The overall US death rate now stands at 5.88% with 1.69m cases. As previously discussed, this high death rate indicates the presence in the population of many undiagnosed/asymptomatic cases. This observation allows us to do a bit of math. In particular, if we assume that the actual death rate is 0.6% (a common guestimate), then that would mean that US cases currently exceed 16 million.
We could then use this number to estimate the upper bounds on total deaths by the time the pandemic finishes. if we assume that 200m people will eventually get the virus (the minimal level for herd immunity) and then note that 100k people have already died in the US, then that would imply a final US death total of around 1.2m (200/16 * 100,000).
Of course, this calculation should be taken with a giant grain of salt. Among other things, it assumes no vaccine, no improvement in treatments, no change in spread (due to warmer weather) and no improvements to public health policies and social behaviors. Even so, it's an interesting number and demonstrates that the pandemic might end up having a much greater impact over time.